April 24, 2025_ Diplomatic efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end are accelerating, with high-level talks underway in London and behind-the-scenes meetings happening across Europe and Russia. Yet despite the flurry of activity, major questions remain about whether a breakthrough is even possible. Officials from the US, UK, Germany, France, and Ukraine are currently meeting in London to discuss potential paths forward. At the same time, Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is preparing for his fourth round of discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
Though the momentum is building, clarity is still in short supply. The US once had a straightforward peace plan on the table: an immediate 30-day ceasefire followed by long-term negotiations. Ukraine agreed—offering a major concession by dropping its demand for long-term security guarantees before the ceasefire. But Russia rejected the idea, insisting that any end to the war must come with deeper changes.
President Putin continues to push his narrative that NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s independence pose security threats to Russia—claims the US has now partially acknowledged in an effort to keep talks alive.
In recent days, leaked reports suggest the US may be crafting a new proposal. The broad outline reportedly includes Russia halting its invasion where it stands, dropping its bid to seize the rest of the contested eastern regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. In return, the US would tacitly accept Russian control over already-occupied areas, and even officially recognize Crimea as Russian territory—something that has been off-limits in past negotiations.
Ukraine, under this plan, would also abandon its aim of joining NATO. The US might also take temporary control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant—currently under Russian control—and provide power to both Ukrainian and Russian-held regions.
But the US is tying this plan to a tough deadline. If there’s no quick agreement, Washington could walk away from the table altogether—an approach backed by both Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Still, the chances of success look slim. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said he would never accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea. And even if he wanted to, Ukrainian law requires a public referendum to make such a move. European nations have also said they will not support any deal that rewards Russia for using military force to change borders. Legal experts point out that US laws may also prevent recognizing Crimea as Russian territory.
Despite these obstacles, Western diplomats haven’t entirely written off the idea. One told reporters, “There is a landing space. It’s just a question of whether there is enough trust between the parties to move forward.” However, the leaked plan leaves out many of Russia’s core demands—such as banning Western military aid to Ukraine or drastically shrinking the Ukrainian military. And there’s still uncertainty over sanctions: when they would be lifted and under what terms.
The gap between the sides remains wide. Ukraine wants a conditional ceasefire now, the US is looking for a quick win, and Russia seems determined to hammer out a complex, long-term agreement—a process that could take months or even years.
As a Russian saying goes, “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” And right now, that finish line still looks far away.
